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orywireThe Federal Reserve is scheduled to release its June rate decision at 2 p.m. ET today, followed by a 2:30 p.m. ET press conference. Pre-decision sources point to no rate change, but the official statement and projections should be checked when they post.
The Federal Reserve’s June decision is scheduled for 2 p.m. ET today, with a press conference set for 2:30 p.m. ET. The official decision had not been posted at the last check, and pre-decision market pricing and Reuters reporting pointed to the Fed holding its benchmark rate steady.
The Fed’s June calendar lists the Federal Open Market Committee meeting for Wednesday, June 17, after a two-day meeting that began June 16. The Fed’s 2025-2026 meeting schedule says the policy statement is released at 2 p.m. Eastern Time on the second day of a regularly scheduled meeting, followed by the chair’s news conference at 2:30 p.m.
Today’s meeting is also marked as one associated with the Summary of Economic Projections, the Fed’s quarterly set of forecasts. That means the 2 p.m. release should include not only the rate statement, but also updated projections, including the widely watched rate-path chart often called the dot plot.
The clearest pre-decision expectation is no change. Reuters reported Wednesday that the Fed was expected to hold rates steady, and Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor, which is based on CME Group 30-Day Fed Funds futures prices, showed a 99.1% probability of the target range staying at 3.50% to 3.75% in an update displayed at 8:35 a.m. ET.
That is not the official result. The Fed’s April 29 statement left the federal funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, and the June decision becomes official only when the Fed posts the new statement.
Readers should look first for the new target range. If the Fed holds, the statement should say the target range remains at 3.50% to 3.75%. If it cuts or raises rates, the statement and the separate implementation note should show the new range and related policy rates.
The vote count also matters. The April decision included several dissents, with one policymaker preferring a rate cut and three others objecting to easing-bias language while supporting no rate change. A more unified or more divided June vote would shape how markets and borrowers read the decision.
Because this is a projections meeting, the rate decision may not be the only market-moving item. The Fed’s updated forecasts can show whether officials expect rates to stay where they are, move lower later, or potentially move higher.
The dot plot is not a promise. It is a collection of individual policymakers’ views, and it can change quickly as inflation, hiring and financial conditions change. Still, it often gives the clearest snapshot of how officials are thinking beyond today’s decision.
After the statement posts, check five items: the new federal funds target range, the vote and any dissents, the wording on future rate moves, the Summary of Economic Projections, and the implementation note.
The press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET can add context that is not obvious from the statement alone. The key questions are whether the Fed chair sounds comfortable holding rates for longer, signals concern about inflation, or leaves room for a later move if the data shift.
The next update point is the 2 p.m. release, followed by the 2:30 p.m. press conference if the Fed chair adds meaningful guidance.
